New world order

U.S and Russia has announced that warring parties in Syria will observe ceasefire from 27 the February. It is interesting to note that none of the warring parties in Syria i.e Assad government or Syrian opposition or their allies such as Iran or Saudi Arabia announced the ceasefire. Furthermore both U.S and Russia has announced that operations against ISIL and Al- Qaeda will continue. It is clear that the purpose of the ceasefire is to unite both Assad government and U.S backed opposition against ISIL and Al Qaeda . How did the dynamics in Syria and Middle East for that matter change in few years. U.S , five years ago supported and fostered opposition in Syria to overthrew Assad government which was negative to U.S interests in Middle East.

When Arab spring broke out in Middle East, U.S saw it as an opportunity to remove "friendly" dictators and "Unfriendly" dictators in Middle East and replace them with friendly bourgeois democratic governments which are long term stable and willing to open up the economy to U.S multinationals. In that process Ben Ali of Tunisia and Mubarak of Egypt were removed. They were replaced by pro western democratic government in Tunisia and Muslim brotherhood government in Egypt. However the Muslim brotherhood government in Egypt did not last for long  before military took over. Unfriendly government in Libya led by Qaddafi was removed by force. U.S led alliance also was trying to overthrow Assad in Syria.

However one should analyze the causes for Arab spring. In the Middle east and North Africa , ruling elites over decades became corrupt and decadent. Petty bourgeoisie in these countries originally espoused Arab nationalism in the form Nasser, Arafat  and Baath parties. But over decades Arab nationalism was submerged within corruption, nepotism and ineptness in front of Israeli occupation of Palestine. In the place of Arab nationalism , Islamic ideology became an attractive ideology for the petty bourgeoisie. Hamas ( Sunni Muslim) , Muslim brotherhood ( Sunni Muslim) and Hezbollah (Shia Muslim) became popular and successful organizations  But the unemployment and frustration with the ruling elites grew in the Middle east and North Africa and exploded in Arab spring. U.S and Western solutions to Arab spring did not address the fundamental causes for the Arab spring , i.e unemployment and corruption. Youth (armed with modern tools) who were in the forefront of the Arab spring became disillusioned with the prescribed solutions to their problems and moved rapidly towards the  most extreme ideology which is salafist, wahhabist Islamic fundamentalism of ISIL. It will be interesting to note that all the countries where ISIL grow had Arab spring revolutions. Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt , Tunisia and  Yemen. Thousands of young men went for training and form the vanguard of ISIL in these countries. Although Al Qaeda has been in place before ISIL , it never grew in the same pace as ISIL. In addition to youth with modern tools ISIL also got the services of Saddam' s former special forces who were trained by Soviets. U.S after occupying the Iraq disbanded Iraqi army and  Baathist party to destroy one of the efficient Arab armies. Saddam's special forces kept on fighting U.S and when arrested were locked up with Al Qaeda inmates . This fusion in prisons led to the birth of ISIL . Saddam's special forces provided the structure , command and intelligence for ISIL. Young men disillusioned after the Arab spring provided the cadres, technology, ideology and motivation for ISIL. U.S realized belatedly the strength of ISIL. U.S initial reaction was to treat ISIL like Al Qaeda. But one year of bombing in Syria and Iraq has shown very little material results. ISIL has shown to be resilient. Same bombing destroyed Saddam , Qaddafi and Milosevic in months. Although many sections of progressive press say that U.S is not really bombing ISIL, the facts on the ground in Ramadi, Raqqa and Qobani proved other wise.   U.S started mending its relations with Iran to fight ISIL in Iraq and Syria. Furthermore U.S dependency on Saudi lessened due to the use of Shale oil. U.S is now a net exporter. U.S considers ISIL it's number one enemy in Middle East and an existentialist threat to it and it's Western allies. This is due to the number of foreign recruits ISIL has from U.S and western countries. It's operations in Paris and California demonstrates the threat.

Russia and Iran initially thought that Assad will be able to survive the U.S backed opposition . But in 2014 and 2015 ISIL kept on expanding against Assad's forces and Assad was losing ground. Russia could not afford to lose the only ally in the middle east. It will be relegated to the status of regional power. It started bombing campaign against Assad's foes " moderate" or ISIL. Russia's strategy is to turn the Syrian was into Assad vs ISIL to force U.S to choose between the two. Russia has been successful in Assad reoccupying the areas captured by U.S backed opposition. But it is still unable to roll back ISIL gains. Russia too has an existentialist threat from ISIL due to it's large Muslim population. It also has Muslim neighboring countries of former Soviet Union. Also in Afghanistan ISIL is growing.

This where the new partnership in Middle East comes. Both U.S and Russia are pooling their resources and allies to to defeat and destroy their number one threat in Middle East and North Africa which is ISIL and to lesser extent Al Qaeda. ISIL's base strength at present is limited to Middle East and North Africa.. ISIL has operational abilities in Europe (due to Muslim populations) and U.S  but ISIL is growing in South Asia , South East Asia and West Africa. At present U.S , Russia partnership is limited to Middle East and North Africa. In other parts of the world including Latin America there is direct competition. Progressive governments in Latin America are falling one by one and U.S is gaining it's influence. Similarly in East Asia and South China Sea,  U.S is building coalitions against China.

22/02/2016

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