Trump and new world order

Donald Trump will be inaugurated on the 20th of January as the President of United States. There is much speculation as to what the Trump presidency will bring to the world.  Some say that Trump will carry forward with the policies , he outlined during the election campaign . These include NAFTA renegotiations, Wall on the Mexican border, profiling of Muslims , Tariffs on imports from China, repeal of Obamacare. and Mexico among others. Others say that he will follow mainstream republican party policies such as policies under Reagan, Bush Jnr etc. Looking at Trump's cabinet appointments it looks as if Trump will follow through on his commitments to US blue collar workers, Ultra right (ALT+R) constituency and others who voted for him. In order to understand the Trump presidency and the impact on the world , we have look into various aspects of  the U.S and international situation.

United States

Since 1948 , U.S capitalist class has grown in the strength and reach. Under the guise of globalization , multinationals(MNCs)  and specifically U.S multinationals have reached and captured literally every market in the world . They control international financial institutions such as International Monetary Fund and World Bank . Through these institutions so called reforms are instituted in every country in the world and countries are opened up for the exploitation of the MNCs. Existing national bourgeoisie are removed by fraudulent means such as in Brazil or through direct intervention such as in Iraq.
Lenin's concept of imperialism which is the highest form of  capitalism is highly in evident in the world . The process accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet union and the capture of East European and former soviet states markets. Process would have continued relentlessly if not for two factors. Internal contradictions within U.S capitalist class and China.
Let us look at the internal contradictions within the U.S capitalist class. U.S capitalist class emerged internally from automobile industry , oil and gas industry and financial sectors. Subsequently in 1980 , service sector specifically IT and telecommunications became a major component of the U.S capitalist class. Growth of the service industry required skilled labor such as programmers , business analysts etc. This led to outsourcing and green card visas for skilled labor from other countries.
In the 21st century the process of globalization intensified. This led to breaking down of trade barriers and maximization of the role of World Trade Organization (WTO). Simple capitalist demand and supply principle led to US Capital moving abroad and seeking both cheap skilled and unskilled labor. With NAFTA , this process accelerated with U.S automobile industry moving plants to Mexico to keep the competitive edge on Japanese and German manufacturers. U.S manufacturing industry which was the driving force behind U.S capital in 40s. 50s and 60s is now becoming redundant in many parts of U.S . U.S blue collar workers can no longer compete in a global world with Mexican workers or Asian workers. Basically U.S working class cannot compete in the globalized world with Asian or Latin American working class.  U.S based MNCs have moved out to third world countries for cheap skilled or unskilled labor. Ford manufactures cars in Mexico for U.S. U.S blue collar workers who were fast becoming lumpen proletariat also became attracted to extreme right in the absence of alternative ideologies.
U.S capitalist class too was riven with contradictions. Some sections  (minority) wanted more investment in local manufacturing, Higher tariffs on imports and more exploitation of local resources such as shale gas etc. In fact fracking and shale gas production reached higher levels in the last decade leading to U.S becoming a net exporter.  This sections of the capitalist class which in any other country would be classified as national bourgeoisie  is also hostile to globalization. On the other hand large sections of U.S capitalist class believes on the benefits of globalization and drives the globalization. Microsoft and Oracle employ more workers in other countries or from other countries than in U.S . They spend huge amounts in training of foreign workers. The contradictions between the two sections of the U.S capitalist class was clearly shown in the U.S elections with Trump vs Clinton, each one of them representing the respective section of the U.S capitalist class. Although Trump has met with the globalization oriented U.S capitalist class recently , it will have very little impact in practice as basic capitalist economic principle of demand and supply will force the MNCs to relocate to other parts of the world.

When Trump becomes the President in January , he will have a republican majority congress. However Trump's presidential team is on the ALT- R compared to the republican congress which is mainly mainstream and largely  in favor of globalization including intervention against national soverignity.  In fact  Congress as a whole supports global MNCs i.e "comprador bourgeoisie" as opposed to Trump's "national bourgeoisie". One should point out that this "national bourgeoisie" unlike the national bourgeoisie of third world countries is fascist in character. However Trump administration and mainstream republicans agree on internal illiberal policies such as anti  gay, anti abortion, anti muslim, anti Obama care. anti- climate change  and  anti immigrant. They will also agree on more fracking , shale gas and south Dakota pipe line.  As such Trump with the support of the republican majority will be able to repeal all the liberal laws passed over the last decade and make U.S one of the most reactionary states in the world. EU , Japan and China will have much more liberal laws than U.S.  Both sides too would agree on extreme support for Israel.

But the differences on the issue of globalization and foreign interventions will be significant. Mainstream republicans and Democrats agree on intervention in third world countries against the national bourgeoisie of the those countries. These interventions include the removal  of Assad  and support to Saudi monarchy +  gulf states. However Trump's administration considers the Islamic state and other Islamic fundamentalists as the number one threat to U.S. This comes from ideological mind set of the U.S " national bourgeoisie" , petty bourgeoisie and the lumpen who brought Trump to power and who dominate Trump administration. Trump administration will most likely work with Russia in Syria and Iraq. It will also have negative relationship with Saudi and other gulf states as it consider them as the patron of Islamic fundamentalism. However both sides will agree on confrontation with Iran from "protecting" Israel point of view. Situation in Middle east , Latin America are analyzed separately. In addition there will be broad agreement efforts which will simulate the manufacturing and U.S labor such as selling Boeing and other aircraft ( including fighter aircraft), armaments  to so-called friendly countries, nuclear arms race etc. However heavy manufacturing is no longer blue collar dependent , but increasing white collar dependent.

China

China is the second largest capitalist economy in the world after United States.  In manufacturing sector, China is very close to U.S Initially Chinese economy was based on "attracting in" approach, i.e attracting investment and learning from advanced capitalist economies. West considered Chinese economy as a copy cat of western products and services. However this has changed in the last decade. Chinese companies are increasingly " going out" , have become MNCs on their own. China tool advantage of the membership of WTO to capture foreign markets. Chinese MNCs are increasingly becoming leaders in various sectors such telecommunications . This process will accelerate as China has low cost production compared to West and due to higher percentage on R&D are becoming increasingly innovative. One recent example is the lithium batteries for electric cars. Although West and Japan had the monopoly in the production of lithium batteries, Chinese production is catching up due to low costs and increasing use of electric cars in China. Due to the large internal market , Chinese MNCs can test their innovation and research internally before competing with Western MNCs.

Chinese MNCs and local capitalists are competing with Western MNCs in every field except commercial aircraft manufacturing, In addition they are also becoming market leaders by using the low cost production, superior logistics backed up by Research and Development (R&D).  U.S and Western countries initially welcomed Chinese capitalist reforms whole heartedly expecting it to be fully integrated into world capitalist class like Japan in 50s and 60s . If we take Toyota which as pure Japanese MNC in 80s , it has now become a true global MNC after putting U.S management etc. However Chinese MNCs although operating in multinationals still remain Chinese in terms of control and management.  In addition with Chinese banking and financial services they are outside the control of western financial control. Chinese MNCs although capitalist in nature are still nationalistic. This constitutes a serious challenge to U.S and West as they do not have any control or leverage over Chinese MNCs who are market leaders in various industry sectors. In addition China is developing its armed forces to protect it's external markets and critical supplies such as  raw materials and energy supplies.

How will Trump react to this Chinese situation. Trump will increase tariffs on Chinese imports, but he cannot still make U.S products competitive . In addition increased tariffs will mean inflation in U.S which in turn means increased interest rates which in turn will hurt the "national bourgeoisie" and blue collar workers paying mortgages. Trump and the congress could pass regulations to make it harder for Chinese MNCs to operate in U.S . But this in turn will hurt U.S MNCs operating in China. In a nutshell a tit for tat retaliation between no1 and no 2 capitalist economies will hurt the entire capitalist economy.

On the military front, China wants to dominate South China sea to protect it supply and delivery routes. There is currently tension between the two countries in South China sea. But U.S is steadily losing it's lackeys in South China sea. Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia are no longer controlled by U.S.  China with its financial muscle could easily influence these countries. A new nuclear armament race in the world between U.S and Russia will only benefit China as it will quietly build it strength without damaging its capitalist economy. Already China is third strongest military power in the world. It is yet to fully leverage its technological prowess into military strength. Currently China's technological superiority in telecommunications and other technical fields has not been translated into military technology. Any Trump retaliation or hostile action will accelerate China's efforts to become a global military power.  Basically Trump is going to funnel two arm races, one against Russia and other against China. During the cold war Reagan  started an arm race against Soviet Union and ultimately crippled Soviet economy. Soviet Union at the same time was also massively involved in Afghanistan at a huge cost. But China was a very weak country at that time and was not involved in the whole equation. Situation to day is very different.  China has the ability to compete in arms race more than Russia with it much superior economy. U.S by starting an arms race with both countries could actually bring them closer. Furthermore China will not allow Taiwan or Hongkong to declare independence. Any attempts by these two entities to secede with U.S support will provoke a direct intervention by China.

Middle east and North Africa

Although Arab spring had its roots in widespread unemployment and inequality, West specifically Obama administration saw it as an opportunity to remove regimes which were non conforming such as Libya and Syria and regimes which are nauseating to U.S such as Egypt , Tunisia and Yemen. Obama administration wanted to replace these regimes with either Muslim  brother hood or pro- western but so called democratic governments. U.S has been cultivating relationship with Muslim brother hood for more than 7 decades. U.S government was running with hare and hunting with fox in Middle east. While supporting Mubarak in Egypt , CIA maintained covert relationship with Muslim brother hood. U.S economic objective is to open up the economies in middle east and north Africa for globalization. In Egypt military accounted for nearly 10% of the economy. Picture was similar in Syria, Tunisia, Yemen and Libya where military or allies of the ruling regimes owned large percentage of the economy thus preventing the penetration of global MNCs. Muslim brotherhood is prepared to reform the economy and conform to globalization. Similar situation was present in Saudi Arabia and gulf countries where ruling families virtually controlled the entire economies.

But what happened in Arab spring was something U.S did not anticipate instead of Muslim brother hood (MB) coming to power as the replacement Arab countries went through massive convulsions. In Egypt after a brief MB experiment military was back in power to protect it's interests. Syria, Libya and Yemen lapsed into civil wars  between MB and ruling regimes/military in one form or the other.  But the worst thing which happened to middle east and north Africa is the emergence of Islamic State (IS) and variants of Al Qaeda tampering the grievances of unemployment and social inequality. This extreme form of Islam as an alternative to Arab petty bourgeoisie and lumpen is no different from other extreme forms in Christianity , Buddhism and Hinduism . However IS and AL Qaeda had west as the enemies in addition to local enemies.  IS actions in West and U.S has naturally created also extreme forms of reactions in those countries including the election of Trump.

Main difference between Trump and Obama is that Obama saw MB as an ally and IS/Al Qaeda as enemies , whereas Trump sees all the variants of political Islam as enemies. So for Trump,  Egypt is a close friend , Russia and Syria as potential allies as they have the same approach.  This is where Trump will have potential conflict with Saudis and gulf states. Former King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia saw MB as an enemy and supported the military coup in Egypt. However the current King Salman sees MB as an ally. Qatar also does the same. Only UAE has a clear hostility towards MB.

Trump's policies in middle east will come into conflict with Saudi Arabia and gulf states. Already Saudi royal family was manipulating oil prices to bring down U.S fracking and shale gas " national bourgeoisie" who are the back bone of Trump support. Also Trump's extreme support to Israel will antagonize even his natural supporters such Al-Sisi.  Saudi Arabia played a major role in the U.N resolution against Israel. King Salman is trying to implement a MB version of capitalist framework in Saudi Arabia.  Trump will prefer an Egypt style governments in Saudi Arabia and gulf states. It is possible that unlike in the past , Trump will not intervene in Saudi Arabia or gulf states to protect ruling families. Protection of ruling families have been the corner stone of U.S policy in Middle East for the last 8 decades. Furthermore extreme support for Israel will only weaken U.S friends in the region.

U.S relationship with Iran will be double edged . On one side along with Israel , Trump  wants to bury Iran deal. However this may not be possible as new sanctions could not be imposed by U. N. Furthermore Europeans may not agree to this as they are busy signing up new Airbus deals with Iran. On the other hand Trump needs Iran to fight IS as for Trump , IS will be the number 1 enemy in the middle east if not in the world. In addition Trump needs Russia to fight IS and Russia is an ally of Iran.

Asia

U.S under Trump will have good relationship with Japan, India , South Korea and Taiwan as counter weight to China. However Japan and South Korea have vital economic interests with China. Their MNCs have low cost production facilities in China. Furthermore India too have good economic relationship with China. Chinese MNCs have production and R&D facilities in India. Furthermore Trump's position on immigrants and outsourcing will hurt India as these two are very important aspects of the growth of Indian MNCs. Indian MNCs depend a lot on outsourcing of U.S based MNCs and cheap skilled labor to U.S based MNCs.

Russia
Obama administration has accused Russia of hacking and intervening in U.S election. These claims are supported by main stream republican leaders who want to use Russia as a bogey man to build up U.S armament industry. However Trump sees IS as the main threat and is prepared to work with Russia in Middle East. Although Obama expelled 34 Russian diplomats, Russia did not retaliate and indicated it will wait for the new administration.
From a pure military sense, Russia is the only with the military capacity both conventionally and nuclear to challenge U.S . However Russia is far cry from Soviet Union . Soviet Union was a super power. However Soviet Union being socialist was not prepared to use it's military power willy-nilly and bomb cities into submission just like in chechnya or Aleppo. Russia is led by national bourgeoisie and will use military power totally to protect it's capitalist interests. Trump understand this unlike Obama and republican leaders who see Russia as an incarnation of Soviet Union. Russia has strategic and capitalist/imperialist interests in middle east. Tartus bas in Syria is the only Russian bas outside Russia. Russia will do whatever necessary to protect it's interests in Syria and other Middle East countries. There is competition between U.S/West  and Russia in Middle East and Eastern Europe for capitalist interests. Russia although economically weaker than U.S or West will use it's super power military capabilities to protect it's capitalist interests.

Latin America and Mexico

Latin America is where U.S imperialism first established it's roots. U.S took over from Spanish and Portuguese colonialists in the 19th century. U.S constantly interfered in Latin America instigating military coups or other wise. U.S multinationals controlled the economies of Latin America. Latin America is the continent where the term " Banana Republic " was invented. However at the end of 20th century,  U.S due to its commitments in Middle east and else reduced it s interventions  in Latin America. Bourgeoisie democratic elections brought national bourgeoisie to power in Latin America. By the time Obama came to power Latin America was ruled by so called left or nationalist governments who developed the economic power bases and blocs. An example is Mercosur dominated by Brazil and Argentina. However Obama started dismantling the national bourgeoisie governments by using modern techniques of regime change as outlined in another article in this site. One by one Latin America turned to right . Now only handful such as Venezuela , Bolivia and Ecuador are left and they too are under huge pressure. Obama's TPP would have brought Latin American countries on the pacific ocean back  under U.S's economic influence.However Trump will abandon TPP .
Trump's U.S will work towards bilateral agreements with Latin American countries. However Trump will face serious challenge with Brazil and Mexico. Brazil, although now under a right wing government has a national bourgeoisie which expanded over Latin America over the last and this decade. There will be a tussle between U.S MNCs and Brazilian MNCs for the control of Latin America.

Mexico is a different story altogether. Mexico has a land border with U.S and it's bourgeoisie along with other MNCs benefited from NAFTA. Furthermore all the illegal immigration to U.S literally is via the border with Mexico which in many places un- demarcated. Trump is expected to breakup NAFTA and build a wall with Mexico. This has huge ramifications to both countries. Mexico has occasional bouts of nationalism targeted against U.S. In fact nationalist revolution in early 1900s led to power the present ruling party PRI. Any attempts by Trump to build the wall will definitely lead to nationalist backlash in Mexico. Mexico and U.S has fought wars in the past which Mexico invariably lost and territory such as Texas and California. Mexico is not in a position to fight a war against U.S . However a nationalistic government in Mexico will be a major de-stabilizer to U.S. Currently U.S DEA operates without impunity in Mexico against drug mafias. This will be impeded. A nationalist Mexico will build closer economic interests with Brazil and China.





Date : 25/12/2016



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